What method of selection returns the best prediction about a candidate's abilities?

The method of selection that returns the best prediction about a candidate's abilities is work sampling. Work sampling involves evaluating candidates based on their performance in tasks that closely resemble the actual job duties they will be required to perform if hired. This approach enables employers to assess not only the candidate’s skills and competencies in real-time but also how they handle job-related scenarios, making it a practical and direct measure of their abilities.

By simulating job tasks, work sampling provides observable evidence of how candidates will function in the workplace, which is a strong predictor of future job performance. This method allows employers to see firsthand how candidates apply their knowledge and skills in conditions similar to those they will face on the job, leading to more reliable predictions regarding their effectiveness in the position.

In contrast, while personality tests may provide insights into behavioral traits and how a candidate might fit within a company’s culture, they do not directly measure job-related skills. Interviews are subjective and can be heavily influenced by the interviewer's biases and the candidate's performance on that particular day. References can provide additional background but are often not as specific or reliable as direct assessments of abilities through work sampling.